From Data to Decisions: Closing the Strategy-Execution Gap in Government
The "Connect Dots & Measure Results" session block at Prodacity 2025 tackled a significant challenge in government and enterprise: making better decisions with better data. Across three powerful talks from Martin Eriksson, Douglas Hubbard, and Justin Fanelli, there was a clear message: measuring what matters and linking strategy to execution are the keys to impact.
For government generally and the military specifically, the challenge is not the absence of data but how to use it effectively. Highlighting decision stacks, measurement inversions, and mission-driven outcome metrics, these talks addressed the critical need to connect strategy to execution and deliberately measure progress.
Here are the four major takeaways from the session.
1. Strategy Is Broken Without Execution—And Execution Is Meaningless Without Strategy
“There is nothing quite so useless as doing with great efficiency that which should not be done at all.” – Peter Drucker (quoted by Martin Eriksson)
The Disconnect Between Vision & Action
Martin Eriksson painted a picture of a common but dangerous problem in government and large organizations: the strategy-execution gap. Teams often know what they’re doing but don’t always know why.
Eriksson introduced the Decision Stack, a framework for connecting day-to-day work to big-picture strategy. Every organization, whether military, government, or enterprise, must answer five critical questions:
- Where are we going? (Vision & Mission)
- How are we going to get there? (Strategy)
- What matters right now? (Objectives & Key Results - OKRs)
- What actions move us forward? (Opportunities & Initiatives)
- How do we want to work? (Principles & Culture)
If any of these steps are missing or unclear, teams devote time and hard work to the wrong things. This problem is common in the federal space where compliance-driven processes often overshadow mission-driven outcomes.
Making Strategy Actionable
Eriksson argued that strategy must be coherent, decision-driven, and continuously tested—not just a set of goals on a PowerPoint slide. A roadmap is not a strategy. An OKR spreadsheet is not a strategy. Strategy is about making choices.
“Great strategy is a coherent set of choices about what we're going to do in order to achieve our vision.” – Martin Eriksson
For the government, this means:
- Stop treating every project as equal. Prioritize investments that truly drive mission outcomes.
- Push decision-making down the stack. Leaders set direction, but execution teams need autonomy.
- Continuously test assumptions. Just like agile software development, a strategy should be iterative.
2. The Biggest Measurement Mistake: Measuring the Wrong Things
“It is not just that people are measuring the wrong things. They are measuring almost exactly the wrong things in almost exactly the wrong order.” – Douglas Hubbard
The Measurement Inversion
Douglas Hubbard, author of How to Measure Anything, tackled the misconceptions surrounding measurement and risk assessment. He highlighted a common problem in government and enterprise: organizations prioritize measuring what is easy, rather than what is impactful.
For example:
❌ IT & security teams often focus on cost rather than mission impact.
❌ Risk assessments use subjective scoring methods instead of probabilistic modeling.
❌ Government programs measure “activity” (meetings held, reports written) rather than “outcomes” (lives saved, threats neutralized).
Hubbard called this the “Measurement Inversion:" when organizations invest heavily in measuring low-impact, low-uncertainty factors while ignoring the high-impact, high-uncertainty ones.
“If you know almost nothing, almost anything will tell you something.” – Douglas Hubbard
How to Measure Anything (Yes, Even That)
Hubbard argued that nothing is immeasurable, whether it’s trust, innovation, or the value of AI. The key is breaking concepts down into observable behaviors and defining success.
For example:
- Trust → Measurable by consistency in decision-making, reduction in escalations, or response times.
- Innovation → Measurable by the percentage of ideas that reach implementation or time-to-impact.
- AI Value → Measurable by human task reduction, efficiency gains, or cost savings.
Hubbard also stressed the importance of uncertainty quantification. Organizations should use probabilities instead of arbitrary risk scores and leverage Monte Carlo simulations to model complex scenarios.
“You have more data than you think you need and need less than you think.” – Douglas Hubbard
3. In a Bureaucracy, “Good Enough” Isn’t Good Enough. You Need Exponential Change
“We need to move from linear improvements to exponential gains.” – Justin Fanelli
From Slow, Linear Progress to Exponential Disruption
Justin Fanelli, Department of the Navy CTO and Technical Director of DON PEO Digital, brought a Department of Defense perspective to the conversation, highlighting the urgency of scaling innovation.
The Navy and Marine Corps have pockets of excellence, including pilots, experiments, and one-off successes, but the challenge is scaling those wins across the entire force.
“How do we take the amazing thing happening at one base and make it the norm everywhere?” – Justin Fanelli
To break free from incremental progress, Fanelli introduced two disruptive concepts:
- Operation Cattle Drive – Treat projects like cattle, not pets. Every project must justify its existence based on impact—not past investments or bureaucratic inertia.
- World-Class Alignment Metrics (WAMs) – Instead of measuring inputs, e.g. hours worked or features shipped, measure outcomes: mission effectiveness, time savings, lethality improvements.
Kill What’s Not Working
Fanelli was blunt: if a project isn’t delivering impact, cut it. The Navy is now actively using data to divest in underperforming programs and reinvest in disruptive ones.
This marks a major shift in federal acquisition strategy. Historically, the government has propped up failing programs rather than cutting them.
“Everyone should have to sing for their lunch.” – Justin Fanelli
4. Outcome-Driven Metrics: The Key to Scaling What Works
“If you follow all the rules, you’ll get paper cut to death.” – Justin Fanelli
Data + Storytelling = Real Change
All three speakers emphasized the power of combining hard data with compelling narratives. Metrics alone won’t drive transformation. Leaders must use data to tell a story of impact.
Fanelli highlighted a key challenge in government innovation: projects with massive mission impact often lack visibility, while bureaucratic programs survive because they “check the right boxes.”
To combat this, he proposed:
- Radical transparency – Make it painfully obvious which projects deliver results and which do not.
- Bragging with data – Leaders must learn to advocate for successful programs using clear, measurable impact.
- Shifting from input/output metrics to true outcome metrics.
TLDR; Takeaways for Federal Agencies & Contractors
- Strategy must be clear, coherent, and tested—not just a plan on a slide.
- Organizations must prioritize measuring impact, not just activity.
- Federal programs must move from linear improvements to exponential change.
- Mission-driven outcome metrics should drive decision-making, not bureaucracy.
About the Prodacity 2025 Blog Series
This blog is part of a series that distills insights from talks at Prodacity 2025. This entry covers the session block "Connect Dots & Measure Results", featuring Martin Eriksson, Douglas Hubbard, and Justin Fanelli. Want these insights and other Prodacity announcements delivered straight to your inbox? Subscribe here.
